Does John Bull Rally ‘ Round the Union Jack ? The Nature of the “ Rally ‘ Round the Flag ” Effect in the United Kingdom , 1950 - 2000
نویسندگان
چکیده
The “rally ‘round the flag” effect literature has focused too narrowly on the United States, limiting our ability to understand whether rally effects are a generic product of democratic political institutions or a product of the particular political culture and geopolitical status of the U.S. This article takes a step towards remedying this problem by conducting the most systematic study to date of rally effects in the United Kingdom. Rally effects are measured by changes in the popularity of the prime minister, government, and party following 76 Militarized Interstate Disputes (MIDs) between 1950 and 2001. Bringing recent refinements in the rally literature to bear on the British case, we emphasize the potential role of opinion leadership, media coverage, and a discerning public that differentiates between the purposes for which for force is employed. As in the United States, there is no automatic, sizeable rally effect in the United Kingdom: the mean change in approval is 0.6%. Larger rallies arise when the UK is acting as part of a multilateral coalition and is not taking a revisionist stance, and when disputes are more severe. Unlike the United States, opposition behavior and media coverage do not exert a strong influence on the size of rallies. In general, our findings suggest that the British public is discerning and “pretty prudent” in its responses to the use of force abroad.
منابع مشابه
What Gets Covered? How Media Coverage of Elite Debate Drives the Rally-'Round-the-Flag Phenomenon, 1979-1998
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